Nifty View: 18th March 2014 to 21st March, 2014

Happy Holi everyone, it's that colourful time of the year once again when summer stands at our door step and it's a perfect time to have a SPLASH. The Indian Stock Markets will remain closed on 17th March, 2014 and that means we will have a shorter trading week this time.

Moving on to the markets, Nifty remained range bound in a rather tight 70 point range between 6490 and 6560. On friday, the markets remained lower for major part of the session and posted a sharp recovery near closing and hence closed for the week at 6504. Nifty isn't giving up it's gains easily and any dips in the index is being bought. The market rather than correcting downwards is correct sideways and giving a time correction rather than a price correction. Many traders have been trapped this month in PUTs of strike prices of 6200-6300.
Nifty Daily Chart
As the chart shows, Nifty had broken out of the steep rising channel near 6370 levels and moved up sharply by approximately another 200 points. The resistance level of 6560 spot once broken can see another round of sharp upmove. Support for the index is at the 6390-6415 range. Watch for this range and BUY on any dip near 6415 and hold with SL of 30 points for a target of 6475. Below 6385, the index can slip to downsides of 6350 which is an important support for this rally. If Nifty slips below 6350, we can assume that the bulls have lost control of the market and we can see the index slip further to 6200 levels. As of now, the index is in control of the BULLS and opening triggers for next week will come from the outcome of Sunday's referendum of the Russia-Ukraine standoff. Above 6565 spot, BUY Nifty with SL of 25 points at 6540 for Target of 6600-6615.

CNX IT Daily Chart
The IT index has broken the rising channel and this pattern break has a target of 8900 levels. The index has already fallen to 9440 levels majorly on a sharp fall in the Infosys counter.The index was finding good support at it's 34MA region and now 9900-10000 is a resistance level. However, a rise in $ can give support to the index as this downfall was triggered off by an appreciating rupee.

The FMCG index was rangebound from November to February in the 16350-17150 range and it is now giving a breakout as shown in the chart. We expect the index to rise upto 18150 levels. FMCG stocks could give a good return in the coming days. So watch out for these stocks.

USD INR Daily Chart
USD INR gave a dip below 60.75 and went on to bounce back from 60.50 levels before moving up sharply to 61.5 levels. Resistance for USD is at 61.75. Above 61.75, USD can see 62.4 levels and this will put pressure on the markets. Watch for the trigger from the Russia-Ukraine standoff.

Wishing everyone a very colourful and cheerful holi once again!
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