NIFTY View

Nifty View: 10th March, 2014 and Ahead

USD/INR
USD-INR (Daily Chart)
At a crucial support level on the charts, the dollar can slip to 58.6 levels, if it breaks 60.8 on the Daily Charts. Above 62, we can see $ gaining strength once again for target of 63. But as of now, this week 60.75 will be the make or break level.

USD-INR (Monthly)
On the monthly chart, we have the trendline at 60 which the dollar had broken in June '13. The currency could find support at this level as broken resistance levels become support zones and this behaviour of re-visiting broken trendlines is poplarly known as kissing the trendline. Short USD/INR at 60.7, SL: 61, TGT: 60.1 (Spot Levels).

NIFTY
Nifty Monthly Chart
As shown in the Chart, Nifty has broken the crucial resistance of 6350 level and if it sustains the month of Mar '14 above 6400 on a closing basis, we are looking towards a big rally in the index over the next 2-3 years with textbook targets of 10400-10500 on the Nifty. Ofcourse, this is on a monthly timeframe and cannot be traded as the risk is huge. Traders are gearing up for May '14 as we will have the election results in that month. As per charts, 5750 is a crucial support zone and closing below 5750 on a monthly basis can send us into another wave of downmove for targets probably of 4500 over a period of 12-15 months. On the daily charts, we are in an uncharted territory now with the Nifty making lifetime highs. With the amount of money the FII's have been pumping, any DIP on the Nifty can be bought. The rally sustains as long as Nifty trades above 6350. For intraday traders, 6460 is the key level to watch. BUY on dips near this level with SL at 6440. Safe traders can be stock specific rather than trade a market which they might feel is highly over-bought. Also, anyone going SHORT must be very careful and hedge as shorting a market which is making NEW HIGHS on the back of 2x volume can be capital erosive.

CNX IT
CNX IT (Daily Chart)
On the daily Chart, CNX IT is near the trendline support at 9950 levels. A fall in the dollar can see CNX IT correcting from the current levels. If the index closes below 9950 on the daily chart, we can see a downmove till 9500-9350-9150 levels. IT till now has been a safe sector for investors and IT stocks are at all time highs. Any fall in the dollar value can see IT sector enter a phase of consolidation and correction. We don't expect a major downside in IT stocks.

CNX PHARMA
CNX PHARMA (Daily Chart)
CNX Pharma is another index which has supported the markets well till now, a fall in dollar will hit the pharma sector too. 7750 is a strong support zone. We expect CNX PHARMA to be in the 7600-8000 range for a few weeks.

As of now, we don't have any trade in Nifty. We will wait for signals this week for new positions and update the same on our facebook page.
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