NIFTY View

Nifty: February View

Nifty - Daily
January saw a bearish move set in the markets and the downtrend doesn't seem close a finish. We might be seeing corrections and pullbacks but the market has entered a bearish phase. An important level to watch will be 5970. If Nifty closes below 5970, then there can be downsides till 5700. In our previous posts we had been talking of a strong fall from 6150 to 5950 if 6150 breaks. After this move, 5950-5970 could act as a support zone and give a relief rally till 6110-20 levels. The intermediate top formed on 9th December, 2013 with the exhaustion gap is usually a strong resistance and a medium term top. We have seen close to a 500 point correction from that level and all eyes now are on 5950. Generally, the only things to BUY for medium term now in the market are the IT stocks and $. BUY $ or $ calls and hold to hedge your portfolio. What makes us take a hedged view and such a bearish forecast is that the global markets are seeing a SELL-OFF and FII's are selling in big numbers. The previous corrections in Nifty have been with minor selling from FII's, strong global markets and stock-sector specific moves. Almost all stocks which had been moving strong have broken crucial support zones and seem set for a good and decent correction.

i) Above 6030: 6065/6110/6175-6190/6260/6350
ii) Below 5950: 5900/5860/5800/5740/5700

The above levels are key levels to watch for Nifty. Nifty has supports and resistances usually in every 40-50 point range and all the above levels are as per charts. Our self-built indicator has been on the short side for more than a week now.

Swing Trading Sheet (DalalStreetBulls)
We would like to add a disclaimer that we don't execute any trades based on charts (For Nifty). We use the above swing trade technique where we are always LONG or SHORT on the market with predefined Swing Levels and trail our SL till the indicator shows a change in trend. The indicator works well in trending markets but often gives minor gains and losses in range bound markets. The reason of not using Charts for executing the trades is that with Charts comes a set of emotions. There can be reasons to be LONG and reason to be SHORT. When you are free of emotions and just consider price (The best indicator above all), you ride the market when and where it goes. Also, we don't update all of our trades on the facebook page as it is not always convenient during market hours. With our blog and charts on the FB page, we aim to share maximum possible setups and tips for all.
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